Week 4 Bets – Sunday

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1912

I went big this week with 0.036 BTC waged across many more games than I have in the past previous 3 weeks. I have also included 1 Parlay bet of which I placed an estimated value of BTC at $8.19 across 4 games. Again, I don’t track USD, rather playing as a hobby with Bitcoin.


First, the Parlay Bet:

StatusBet typeEventWagerOddsRiskTo Win
PendingparlayLos Angeles Chargers v Miami DolphinsGame: Miami Dolphins +161.783  
PendingparlayMinnesota Vikings v Chicago BearsGame: Chicago Bears -1.51.957  
PendingparlayDallas Cowboys v New Orleans SaintsGame: Dallas Cowboys -2.51.905  
PendingparlayCarolina Panthers v Houston TexansGame: Houston Texans -41.976  
Pendingparlay  13.1350.0010.012135

KANSAS CITY -6.5

KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 9/29 | 10:00 AM PDT

The Chiefs will be able to put up points vs. The Lions offense which is ranked 23rd in points scored per drive. The fact that Tyreek Hill has been gone and The Chiefs still put the whoop down on Baltimore, I do feel like their injuries will slow them down a bit (Damien Williams / Eric Fisher). Not to mention Matthew Stafford’s hip injury, bottom line, I am going with the Chiefs to cover.


TENNESSEE +4

TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA | 9/29 | 10:00 AM PDT.

Here is the deal, I don’t have a ton of faith in the Titans. For me, this bet is a 100% consensus bet and checking various computer models. Truth is this game could go either way, but I feel comfortable with the +4 considering as I write this post, the line just moved to ATL-3.5.


UNDER 45

CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | 9/30 | 5:15 PM PDT

Both teams have just had very underwhelming performances so far. I can’t see how either team is really poised to put up many points. Andy Dalton doesn’t do well in the spotlight and Mason Rudolph has only thrown for 286 yards this season which is less than 100 yards per game. 


UNDER 51

WASHINGTON @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/29 | 10:00 AM PDT

The official line is 49, but I took 2 extra points for a lower payout, this game. The line has already moved from 48.5 to 49. The NY Giants and Washington are ranked #20 and #21 respectively in average points scored per game so far in the 2019 season. Each team is averaging 21 points per game. Hence this number is above all other betting totals with these teams. I think both teams will be tamped a bit, and each just has an average offense. Various computer models also had Under 49 at 61% on simulation.


HOUSTON -4

CAROLINA @ HOUSTON | 9/29 | 10:00 AM PDT

The line is -4 because Cam Newton just isn’t Cam Newton any more, we all know it! If he was playing at the peak, this line would be between -1 & -2. The win percentage of NFL home teams in the NFL was analyzed from games between 2001 and 2015. In regular-season games, the win % is exactly 57.3% and wins by just over 3 points. This “fuzzy logic” is why I am going with Houston.


CINCINNATI +4

CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | 9/30 | 5:15 PM PDT

The line has already moved from PIT-4 to PIT-3.5 giving Cincinnati even more confidence in this bet. I am glad I got in at +4. Given the fact that Andy Dalton has typically had poor performances when he plays prime time, this is my wild card bet this week. I am a Seahawks fan, so I am also reflecting on how the Bengals outfoxed Seattle, but just came up short. Let’s see how this one works out!


BUFFALO +7

NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9/29 | 10:00 AM PDT

I know that the Patriots have been tossing up huge scores, but we can’t really consider their averages when we consider the win against Miami. All the data points to this being a lower scoring game than they have been able to achieve in the past. Buffalo is a better team than Miami and the Jet’s so I like the line at +7. It does look like Julian Edelman will be playing, he recently said that “he would do everything in his power to be available for the teams next game at Buffalo”. Still, give Buffalo another 3 on the home game!


UNDER 42

NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 9/29 | 10:00 AM PDT

Per the above, I also think this game is going to be a much lower scoring game than the Patriots have been posting up. Both of these teams have Top 5 defenses and total yards allowed. These are the best 2 teams in the AFC East, so I just don’t see this game going high. The line has moved since I placed my wager to 42.5, so let’s see.


DALLAS -2.5

DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/29 | 5:20 PM PDT

The Saints simply didn’t deserve the game against Seattle. The Seahawks lost, the Saints didn’t win. The Saints defense is giving up an average of 5.1 yards per carry. You think they are ready for Ezekiel Elliot? Dallas is just too strong of a team and they should easily be able to cover the -2.5. Unless some other freak-voodoo occurrence by New Orleans I really like my odds here!


TAMPA BAY +10

TAMPA BAY @ L.A. RAMS | 9/29 | 1:05 PM PDT

The Rams seemed to struggle against the Browns defense, I am sure the Rams will win, but the bottom line is that Tedd Bowles is going to give the Rams offense a hard time. The Buccaneer’s records of 1-2 doesn’t fade me because of the major enhancements that Todd Bowles and Bruce Arians have made simply doesn’t show on the W/L record.


INDIANAPOLIS -6.5

OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/29 | 10:00 AM PDT

This is the 2nd game for the Raiders on the road. The Colts should be able to run over them the same way the Minnesota offense dominated them last week with 5.6 yards per carry. The Raiders looked good against the Broncos, but since haven’t shown much pizazz. Their defense ranks 29th in total points allowed per drive. The Colts should be able to easily beat them by 1 touchdown.


MIAMI +16

L.A. CHARGERS @ MIAMI | 9/29 | 10:00 AM PDT

Here is the deal, I had that little “gut” check when Miami played New England, that The Patriots would cover. Then When they faced Dallas, I jumped on it (and won << check the stats Week 3), but when you are the Dolphins and your schedule includes probably 2 of the top 5 toughest teams in the league, then scoring is going to look off. But not so with the LA Chargers, I am getting behind Miami this time that they can hold LA to 2 touchdowns. It’s also worth noting that the line here has gone from MIA +16 to MIA+14.5, so I am glad I got in at +16. I feel good about this one!


CHICAGO -1.5

MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO | 9/29 | 1:25 PM PDT

The line moved from -2.5 to -1.5 (heck Yea!), Bottom line, we have 3 points for Chicago as the home team and I just can’t see The Vikings winning by more than a field goal. As long as Chicago can stop Dalvin Cook, they should be able to pull it off. Considering the 2018 season, The Bears had some easy wins against the Vikings.


PHILADELPHIA +4.5

PHILADELPHIA 34 @ GREEN BAY 27

***POST UPDATE – GAME ALREADY PASSED**

So I won’t write a boring explanation of the “Why’s” instead, I wanted to write the last minute injury of Avonte Maddox. I happened to be watching the game from the Detroit Airport hotel The Westin. Having missed my flights, I was out of my element.

The game was good and I knew I had my money on The Eagles and by the 3rd quarter, they had it!

Then as I watched Maddox lay on the ground, my heart sank . . . I imagine a worst-case scenario and I prayed.

I watched the entire Eagles team rally in support and I was proud of the after game concern of the Packers despite their home field loss.

This display of support of sportsmanship made me a proud fan of the NFL.

Get Well Avonte!

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